Ukrainian Conflict
Invasion
For the past two months, the global focus has been brought to the attention of the Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine. What Russia has done and continues to do is commit crime against humanity. The western powers have been in universal support of Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who has become a global icon. The United States in particular, has supported Ukraine by supplying billions of dollars and military equipment to try and level the very much lopsided advantage that the superior Russian military has over the Ukrainian military. In recent years, the United States has bolstered the Ukrainian army with military equipment as well as training to prepare for an event such as the one that took place in 2014 as well as right now. While it is abundantly clear that Russia is not an ally, but a diametrically opposed country, I do believe there is a nuanced perspective to this foreign conflict that we are not considering. If we continue down the path that both Ukraine and the United States is on, I do worry that the ramifications are immeasurable and will inevitably result in fallout far worse than anything we’ve seen in the 21st century.
NATO
NATO or the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization was created and signed in 1949 following the conclusion of World War II and in the early stages of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. The original goal of the organization was to create solidarity amongst sovereign nations (U.S, United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal) in the pursuit of limiting the expansion of the communist Soviet Union and their goal to reshape the global order in the form of an authoritarian red wave. NATO was a defense agreement amongst the members so that if the communist Soviet Union decided to invade or attack one of the member countries, the remaining members would militarily defend and attack Russian forces. This of course makes perfect sense and I’m sure deterred aspects of Russian aggression and expansion. However, what we have seen since the founding of the organization and the membership of the original 12 allies is expansion where we’re now at 30 members with the goal of adding more including Finland and Sweden. Despite the military interventionist policy, NATO has no parliament or globally respected laws, when crimes against humanity take place such as the one’s being acted out by Russia currently, the organization has no means of stopping them aside from issuing a declaration of disapproval. When the world currently has over 40 million slaves including global powers such as China, NATO does not step in and stop this, the same goes for the United Nations. The agreed-to-figure that each NATO member is supposed to contribute in defense spending is 2% of the total GDP, according to Newsweek as of 2021 the United States is responsible for 69% of the defense spending and the total spending comes out to $1 trillion. This is an improvement from in 2014 where only 3 counties were holding up their end of the bargain which does beg the question, why is the U.S. needing to carry the organization on it’s back while European countries simply rely on U.S. intervention for their protection rather than providing protection for themselves? Despite the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1989, Nato has only grown larger in membership. One could easily argue that since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1989, NATO has not only been a purposeless union but one that has created more conflict than it has prevented. What role does the organization still play today and how is it affecting the current Ukrainian conflict?
Renege
In 1990, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO issued an assurance to then Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastward to countries that butt-up-to Russia. This was a decree that was violated by NATO within the very decade that it was made. In 1999 Hungry, Poland, and the Czech Republic joined NATO. In 2004 Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, and Bulgaria all joined NATO. In 2009 Croatia and Albania joined NATO. In 2017, North Macedonia and Montenegro jointed NATO. These are countries that are either neighboring, near, or former Soviet Union nations, obviously breaking the agreement made to Russia in 1990. When you consider that NATO countries allow for military bases, including those of United States’ military to be put on their soil, this is enough to discomfort Russia which brings us to Ukraine. Ukraine is a former Soviet Union country that gained its independence in August of 1991 although many Ukrainians still consider themselves Russian. Ukraine has made no uncertain claims that they wish to join the NATO alliance and NATO has made no uncertain claim that they wish for them to become a member. Ukraine, directly west of Russia and connected in the southeastern corner, wishes to be part of “The West ” which is a perfectly reasonable and understandable desire. The problem is that Russia will not allow them to join NATO because they do not wish to have a connected neighboring country have military ties to countries such as the United States, putting military bases and weaponry right on their border. From the perspective of Russia, this too is a reasonable and understandable position to maintain. During October of 1962, the Soviet Union put nuclear weapons aimed at the United States 90 miles away on neighboring Cuba. President Kennedy made a red-line declaration and after the 13 days that nearly ended the world, both sides agreed to terms ending the standoff. The Soviet Union agreed to remove the nuclear weapons from Cuba and the U.S. agreed to not invade Cuba while also removing the nuclear weapons that we installed in Turkey. In 2022, the shoe is on the other foot and if we’re practicing a little empathy, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that Russia may have a point in not wanting opposing military bases and weapons knocking on their front door.
China
The Ukrainian military is no match for the Russian military in any measurable way. Although the Ukrainian military does not need to defeat the Russians, merely drag this out long enough for Russia to finally give up, I do not see it coming to that point for Russia will only hasten their aggression to make assurances this does not happen. We are currently providing Ukraine with billions in aid and military equipment, deepening our involvement in this conflict with each passing day. Despite this, the only possible way that Ukraine would win this war is with our direct military involvement, this is not an option as this would bring about World War III. Even if we do not send military personnel, the imposed sanctions and sending of supplies is making Russia more and more desperate and aggressive. This is forcing a deepening of Russian ties with China and Iran, our other global adversaries. As a result of the sanctions, Russia has already turned to Chinese markets and their government for financial relief, creating a greater dependency on our biggest rival, deepening the divide between the west and the east. With each passing day, the likelihood of Russia deploying nuclear weapons upon Ukraine increases as does the likelihood of a proxy war between ourselves and China. We do not need further conflict with China as they are already ratcheting up aggression in regards to Taiwan, making it abundantly clear they plan to invade and reclaim the country that is our close ally. It appears at this point, conflict over Taiwan is not only likely but inevitable. We are only beginning to see the results of this Ukrainian conflict in the form of shortages and shipping delays. Ukraine, considered “The bread basket of the world” is unable to export its agriculture which will result in inevitable global food shortages, reducing the supply and causing a rise in food costs for the countries fortunate enough to be able to obtain it. Economists are indicating that there are and will continue to be major shipping delays from China moving forward, creating scarcity which will only destabilize our trade alliance, the one mutual interest we share with China. Taiwan, one of our strongest allies produces over 90% of the world’s total lithium chips, what will happen to our tech infrastructure when China ends Taiwanese exports? How negative of an impact will this be on our economy and the global economy as a whole? The best path forward is not one of deeper U.S. intervention in the form of aid and support but one of diplomacy.
Diplomacy
Russia is not 20th century Germany. Putin is not Hitler, nor even if he aspired to be, could he be. In recent years we’ve for some reason decided that everyone and everything that we don’t agree with is a Nazi or in the case of Putin, Adolf reincarnated. There are so many differences between the two leaders and their counties that there isn’t enough time to lay them all out. For one, the Russian military is completely incapable of westward expansion with the goal of taking over Europe. The majority of the Russian military is made up of 18-year old’s who have to serve for one years’ time by law, this makes for uninspired fighting. This is a military so inept that they cannot even take Ukraine and its capital of Kiev despite being ten times the size and having far superior weaponry. Behind Hitler was a nationalistic fervor and desire to shape the world in the image of the Aryan race, currently in Russia half of its own citizens are in opposition of the Ukrainian conflict. When 1930’s Germany decided to make its expansionist push their economy was booming. Currently there are four states in the U.S. that have larger economies than the country of Russia (California, New York, Florida, and Texas), this is not accounting for the economic devastation that this conflict has cost the Russian economy. Additionally, the goals and mindsets of the two leaders are not even remotely the same, Putin does not wish to exterminate or enslave the Ukrainian people, we know obviously with the gift of hindsight that this is precisely what the German leader aspired to do. It is not only in the best interest of the Ukrainian people for this conflict to end as soon as possible, it is also in the best interest of every other country on earth. The way out does not involve military intervention or further sanctions, but diplomacy. We need to spearhead a negotiation between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. Based on the stated wants and goals of Putin, I do believe a deal could be reached with the agreement that Ukraine will never join NATO nor will NATO seek to continue its expansion in the region. Additionally, allowing the Donbass region (Pictured below) to join Russia, separating from Ukraine. The Donbass region made up of Luhansk and Donetsk, is a region of Ukraine connected to Russian land and is primarily pro-russian already. This region acts as an anchor, holding back the cultural and economic goals of the Ukrainian people and its government. Even prior to the Russian invasion, the pro-russian faction held the governmental power of the Donbass region including having over 35,000 pro-russian separatist soldiers. While there would be inevitable negative trade-offs to allowing the Donbass to split off from Ukraine, it does not make sense to hold onto a source of contention when the people themselves actively oppose the pro-ukrainian government and its goals. While the terms that I proposed could very-well not be enough to end this conflict, it is abundantly clear that continuing this trajectory will only hasten the prospects of awakening a military alliance between Russia, China and Iran that will lead to a global conflict beyond our comprehension. Diplomacy, not further military or financial involvement, is the only way to navigate a way out of this conflict that will benefit the Ukrainian people and the rest of the world. There are looming battles to fight on the horizon that involve us more directly, I do not feel that this is where we plant our flag and take our stand against the encroaching illiberal world powers.
