Drink In Moderation

We’ve officially reached the “Hope” stage in the endless cycle of despair that is Lions fandom. After starting a dreadful 1-6 the team has had a somewhat remarkable turnaround, playing their way into the playoff hunt sitting at 7-7 and 2nd place in the NFC North. The tide has turned from being a team of a losing mentality to one that has developed a sense for winning. Games that have typically slipped away from us are now being converted into wins, the team has been victorious in 6 of their previous 7 games. With that being said, I’ve seen this one before. While things have come together and we’re at the precipice of a playoff birth, Honolulu blue kool-aid is a drink best had in moderation.

Defending the Den

A major reason for the run they’re on is a result of an improvement in defensive play. The defensive unit has been able to generate a pass rush that includes the two leading rookie sack leaders with Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston. Aidan Hutchinson has continually progressed and developed through the year and will likely be the runner-up to Sauce Gardner of the jets for Defensive Rookie of the Year. James Houston, who’s played in only four games thus far, has the second most rookie sacks (behind Hutchinson) with 5 sacks. 

An unexpected area of strength has been the defense’s ability to stifle the opposing run game. Alim Mcneil, the 2021 3rd-round draft pick has proven to be a stalwart in the middle of the line, freeing up other defensive linemen and creating fill lanes for our linebacking group that is playing above expectation. In the last 3 games, they’re only giving up an average of 55.7 rush yards per game, 2nd to only San Francisco during that same stretch. A concern heading into the year was running back receiving production out of the backfield. The unit has managed to hold opposing running backs to 21.93 receiving yards and 0 receiving touchdowns per game, the league’s best in both categories. This is undoubtedly correlated to the respect our pass rush is now receiving, forcing teams to leave a running back in the backfield for added pass protection. 

Despite the early-season injury to safety and defensive leader Tracy Walker, the secondary has improved with the ascension of safety Kerby Joseph and corner Jeffrey Okudah. It’s clear the strategy implemented by Aaron Glenn is one of empty yards and RedZone defense. They are getting torched through the air between the 20s but when the opposing offense gets into the RedZone, they’re being held to field goals at an increasing rate. Field goals get you beat. Due to the limiting of the running game, they’re forcing offenses into longer down-and-distance situations where they’re able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

Offense

The offensive side of the ball has been better than expected, a byproduct of an excellent offensive line. The unit has lived up to expectations, cementing its rank as a top-five offensive line unit in the NFL. Led by the line play, the offense ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense putting up 375 yards per game, a balanced blend of 249 passing yards and 126 rushing yards. With the elite pass protection provided to Jared Goff, he’s been able to have a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23-7, potentially earning himself a contract extension in the process. The receiving group, led by one of the most instinctual players in the league, Amon-Ra St.Brown, has flourished and will continue to improve with the addition of the number 12 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Jameson Williams. For this offensive unit to take the next step it must come with the ascension of the highly talented but inconsistent D’Andre Swift. While the “Thunder” back Jamaal Williams is leading the NFL with 14 touchdowns, Swift presents versatility and higher big-play upside, it is time that he plays to his potential which he will need to do if they have hopes of post-season grandeur.

Playoff Hunt

With four of the seven NFC playoff spots spoken for between the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, and Vikings, the Leos will be needing a near-perfect finish to the year if they wish to secure the 7th spot. According to FiveThirtyEight, Detroit has a 40% chance to make the playoffs. The teams that they’re competing against for the final slot are the Washington Commanders who have a 35% shot, Seattle Seahawks with 30%, and Green Bay with 8%. In order for the Lions to get in, they need to finish with one more win than all three teams.

Remaining on our schedule is the Carolina Panthers on the road, Bears at home, and ending with the incomparably smug Aaron Rogers in Green-bay. The Commanders have the 49ers on the road, Browns at home, and the Cowboys at Home. Seattle has the Chiefs on the road, followed by both the Jets and Rams at home. Should Green-bay win against Miami this week, I would not count out Aaron Rogers’ ability to get the Pack to win their remaining schedule. I can very easily envision watching a post-game interview on January 8th with Rodgers arrogantly dancing on our grave. With the possibility of already clinched playoff teams sitting players down the stretch, the only assured way for the Lions to get in will be to win out.

Forward

We’re in the midst of a stretch that we’ve not experienced in 5 years and find ourselves in a place that is only sparingly familiar to us, a possible playoff birth. With that being said, a couple of stats that are not on our side. According to Elias Sports Bureau, only 3 teams in the history of the league have finished with a winning record after being 5 games below .500 at any point of the season. Similarly, only 3 teams in league history have made the playoffs after being 5 games below .500 at any point of the season. In addition to our improved play, this recent run has been benefited from having one of the easier second-half schedules in the league. With a combination of a limited precedent and the fact that the Detroit Lions have a remarkable talent for turning opportunity into dust (I need not cite the endless examples), I don’t believe the odds are in our favor. 

Regardless of what the home stretch of the season brings us, we’re in a great position moving forward. With 5 picks in the first 67 of the 2023 NFL draft and having Brad Holmes at the helm, things are looking up. Due to the Matthew Stafford trade, we have a top 5 draft pick awaiting us in April by way of the Los Angeles Rams. The future looks bright, but this season isn’t over yet. Let’s indulge and soak in the possibility of a playoff birth, no fan in all of sport deserves it more than us. While I am admittedly pessimistic, I’ll reach for another bottle of blue kool-aid in hopes of not waking up with a hangover.

Go Leo’s.