Forward Down the Field?

Cursed

Our sad, sad organization is the worst franchise in sport.  If there is a worse stat in all of sports than the organization having only 1 playoff win since 1957, I don’t know it.  The NFL had a 16 game schedule since 1978, along with the Cleveland browns, we are the only two teams to go 0-16.  We are coming off of a 3-13-1 season where we once again finished last in our division, not an unfamiliar place to be in.  The only memories associated with the team is Barry Sanders, Calvin Johnson, and countless heartbreaking losses.  I was one of the fools who thought the Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia experiment would work out, it was a miserable failure with Matt Patricia being one of the worst coaching hires in the history of the NFL.  With all of this being said, I am cautiously, hesitantly, reaching for a glass of the Honolulu blue Kool-Aid.  

Holmes

The best decision that the organization has made in a very long time was the hiring of general manager Brad Holmes.  Holmes inherited a dumpster fire with the task of building from the ground up.  So far, the man hasn’t missed.  Holmes hired former lions player and NFL veteran Dan Campbell, who what he lacks in coaching experience makes up for with enthusiasm, passion, and authenticity.  Holmes and Campbell as well as the assistant coaches that they have brought in have instilled a “Knee-biting” culture, one of grit and effort.  With Matt Patricia you had a team that had no respect for their coach because he was entitled and lacked merit, with Campbell & staff it appears to be the complete inverse where the players have all bought in.  It sounds moronic to say when the year ended at 3-13-1 but the team over-achieved, never allowing apathy to set in and played above their talent level indicating a competent coaching staff and an environment that is conducive to eventual wins.  

Draft

Rating draft outcomes is a folly, the draft grades that you see are based on perceived potential and not actual production output.  With that being said, the Lions 2022 draft has been met by much praise by sports media.  USA Today, PFF, CBS, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, NFL.com, and Barstool all gave the Lions grades between A+ to A-.  They managed to walk away with who most experts would consider the best player in the draft in Aidan Hutchinson as well as the perceived best wide receiver in the class with Jameson Williams.  In the 2nd round we took all SEC and second team all-american defensive end Josh Paschal and rounded out the rest of the draft by selecting a safety, cornerback, linebacker, edge rusher, and a tight-end.  Our top 3 picks appear to be the specific hand selected players that Brad Holmes and the front office wanted to walk away from the draft with.  Aidan Hutchinson is someone that we are familiar with as he was University of Michigan’s all-american defensive end and finished second in the Heisman voting.  Hutchinson, who was criticized for his perceived lack of athleticism, excelled at the combine, flashing unexpected quickness.  According to MLive’s Josh Meinke, “Not only was his 3 cone drill the best time among all edge rushers, but it was third best among all players at the combine.”  Hutchinson will not be a flop, even if he does not end up being an elite defensive end, at minimum he’ll be an effective and quality player for years to come.

Offense

For a team coming off of a 3-13-1 season the offense is surprisingly well intact.  Something that’s rare for a shitty team to have is an offensive line, despite an injury-plagued 2021 season, the Lions will enter the season with what will be a top-third offensive line unit with potential to climb that list into the top 5.  Our running back room is one of the better ones in the NFL with D’Andre Swift and 2021 free agent signee Jamaal Williams as the 1-2 punch.  Swift, one of the better young backs in the league, gives versatility by being an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield while also being a slippery runner between the tackles.  Heading into last years’ 2021 season we had the worst receiving corps in the NFL.  In a matter of one years’ time the front office has transformed this position group into one of the most explosive and difficult to defend in the NFC.  A bright spot for the team last year was in rookie possession receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown who ended the year with 90 catches for 912 yards.  The front office complimented St. Brown by bringing in the explosive D.J. Chark with his 4.34 speed and drafting the game-breaking Jameson Williams who while also having 4.3 speed also appeared unguardable during his college career at Alabama.  With redzone help from underrated free agent signing Josh Reynolds, expect for the Detroit offense to be one that will be opening up and stretching the field, creating seams for both our running game as well as pro-bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson.  The vulnerability of our offense no doubt lies in the most important position, quarterback.  Jared Goff had a roller coaster of a year last season, in the first half of the year appearing to be barely a professional to the second half of the year where he not only looked competent but at times, okay-to-decent.  Goff is limited in what he can do, his ceiling is limited so the best that the front office can do at this point is surround him with weapons and a run game where he can elevate his floor-level play and be as productive and efficient as possible.  While I do not believe that Goff is the man to lead the Lions into playoff-success, it appears that Holmes & company have decided to bolster every other position group on the offense to put Goff in the best position possible to be successful.  This year’s draft was not the place to take a quarterback as it was a terrible quarterback class, I like and appreciate that the front office has decided to be patient and wait until opportunity strikes to bring in a better quarterback down the road as opposed to taking a flyer on a less-than or over-priced player.  All-in-all, I am very optimistic about the offensive unit heading into 2022, if we manage to stay healthy and Goff manages not to suck ass, it should be one of the better ones in the NFC. 

Defense

The Lion’s defensive unit is a terrible one.  It is shocking to say that a unit can have what I consider to be a good defensive coordinator in Aaron Glenn and still end up as Pro Football Focus’ worst graded defense.  There was an embarrassingly bad disparity in talent on this end of the ball, there is no doubt about that.  According to PFF’s grading scale, the Lions graded out as the 32nd worst run defense, 32nd in tackling, 29th in pass rush, 31st in coverage, 31st in scoring defense, and 29th in yards allowed.  The defense is a result of terrible roster moves including dreadful draft classes and bad free-agent acquisitions by previous GM Bob Quinn.  We’ll be entering the year being extremely thin and vulnerable at corner and linebacker.  While corner Amani Oruwariaye exceeded expectations, for the corner group to be not dreadful they’ll need former 3rd overall pick Jeffrey Okudah to ascend to the play of an NFL starter and not the biggest flop at corner in the history of the league.  Current projected start at middle linebacker is Alex Anzalone, a player who embodies the tough and gritty player that Dan Campbell loves but is slow of foot and a pass-defense liability.  The returning bright spots of our defense are Romeo Okwara and Charles Harris at defensive end, Tracey Walker in the back end, and the hope of ascension from linebacker Julian Okwara.  There is a lot of pressure on this draft class to develop and develop quickly.  The best thing that you can do to help every level of the defense including your corners is to have a pass rush.  Brad Holmes knows this which is why he has invested heavily in defensive end with our draft capital.  With the addition of Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal to complement Okwara and Harris, the defensive end unit should be a very good one with both depth and talent.  If we can manage to get to the quarterback or force teams to leave additional blockers in the back field then it will help the corners not have to cover for extended periods of time and help the linebackers not have to cover running backs out of the backfield.  The least amount of  time that we have to have the defensive unit on the field the better, the hope is with this pass rush that you’ll be able to get teams into 2nd and 3rd and longs where the percentages are much more in favor of the defense.  While I expect the defensive unit to struggle all-season, I believe they have a quality defensive coaching staff that will put the players in the best position possible to be successful. 

Tempered Expectations

The Leo’s are far from a legitimate playoff contender, our expectations as fans should be held to a goal of being a .500 football team this season.  With that being said, I believe the ground-work for the much needed culture change has been laid.  With what appears to be a quality general manager, a highly player-respected and motivated first-time head coach, and the acquisition of young talent, I expect growth to be achieved this season.  We are green behind the ears with a lot of room to grow, there is only one player on roster that is above the age of 30 and that player (Malcolm Brockers) is 31 years old.  This team, though with a long way to go, feels poised to work and grit their way to over-achieve relative to the lack of experience and or talent  that they possess.  I believe we are looking at a 2022 record of 8-9 and what will hopefully be a year of rapid development and improvement which will put us at the precipice of a playoff appearance in next year’s 2023 season.  Go Leo’s.