Midterm Preview

Introduction

I am a 30-year-old millennial which means I spend too much time ingesting media forms of all kinds whether it’s social, news, or otherwise. I do so for entertainment, yes, but mostly because I like to try and have my finger on the pulse of society and culture. With the midterm election cycle quickly approaching, I am eager to find out where most Americans lie not only politically but culturally, what issues matter most to people in this country, and why. A recent NBC poll found that “70% of registered voters expressed interest in the upcoming election as a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.” This is the highest ever recorded by NBC. That being said, I believe the majority of us reside in echo chambers, a place free of ideas that challenge our own. There is a multifaceted reason for this, first, psychologically, we prefer ourselves to anyone, this is the endowment effect. It is in our nature to prefer listening and absorbing information that reaffirms our thoughts and beliefs, we resist the challenge of examining our pre-or-ill conceived notions. Secondly, for profit. If people are divided only once into two political frameworks instead of several, then media influence, wealth, and power is concentrated at the top. We know this, republicans watch Fox, and democrats watch CNN and MSNBC. And thirdly for political power, the two-party system creates the illusion of free choice and competition when in actuality it is the elite that holds a monopoly over political power. The same is true for all monopolistic power, when competition is removed, it is the consumer, or in this case the populace, that suffers the consequences of an inferior product. It is not politics that most intrigues me, but instead, it is what we find out and are able to dissect as far as where we’re at as a country and what matters most to people.

Economy

On October 18th, the results of a 792 registered-voter sampling conducted by the New York Times and Sienna College were released. The polling data indicated an exact split at 46% republican and 46% democrat when it came to the question of, “If this year’s elections for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district?” What stood out to me was plenty, but one thing is abundantly clear, the biggest issue on the minds of voters entering midterms is the economy.

Of the 792 registered voters polled, 45% said that the economy and inflation is the biggest issue facing the country, far and away the number one issue. The number 2 issue was, “The State of Democracy” at 7%, an issue that is split between Dems and republicans depending on what exactly constitutes the “Threat.” Immigration polled at 5%, Abortion at 4%, Political polarization at 4% and crime at 3%. 
With questions regarding the direction of the country and the job performed thus far by the current administration, it was not great news for democrats. When asked, “Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?” 62% of respondents answered “Wrong Direction” while 24% “Right track.” When asked about whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Biden, 57% were categorized as a net disapproval while 37% were categorized as a net approval.

Take-aways

I am admittedly skeptical of polling data. After watching the 2016 election night and entering the night with an expectation of a blue wave, I have the perspective that polling data at best gives us a snapshot and at most, a decent representation. Historically, polling data does not capture the rural areas very well, this is why every pundit on all stations not named Fox News is always surprised when the ballot count starts pouring in. With that being said, some of the answers give us a pretty good idea of where the minds of most Americans are presently at.

When it comes to the issues themselves, the echo chambers in which we reside have us fooled. Despite the hysteria on the republican right regarding crime, open border policy, and ideology in education, these issues are not the priority of their base. Despite the democratic left telling us we’re about to enter the dystopian plot of Handmaid’s Tale, all polling data indicates this is a fringe issue for the overwhelming majority of their base.

Midterm elections act as a report card for whichever party currently holds the position of power. That being said, this data does not look great for democrats. When 62% of respondents say the country is headed in the wrong direction while only 24% say it’s on the right track and the conductor of the train is a democrat, it does not bode well for Dems. Another question within the poll asked respondents if they believed that the government works to serve ordinary people or works to serve the elite, 68% cited the elites and only 22% chose the people. When one party’s main tenant is the belief in a powerful centralized federal government and only 22% of people believe the government works in the best interest of the citizenry, this too, does not bode well for Dems. 

So if the polling data indicates republican-leaning results, what are the key races and what will the shake-out be?

Key Races

One of the many downsides of political polarization is that the candidates that are able to rise to the top drift further and further away from the moderate space that most voters occupy. This provides us with candidates that reside on the outer fringes of their parties which further drives a divide among the constituents. When looking at senate races, I do not recall a time in my short 30 years that there have been worse candidates put forth. The senate races that are up for presently toss-ups  are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin

According to Politico’s senate race polling, “Over the past week, polls show GOP candidates closing the gap in states where Democrats have led all summer — and perhaps pulling away in races that had appeared close for months.” The current senate is split down the middle at 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans, the democrats hold the majority, however, because they possess the tie-breaking vote that goes to the Vice President. In this election cycle, the democrats have 14 seats up for re-election while the republicans have 21 seats up for election. The current polling data for the key races are below.

• Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) + 2.5 over Blake Masters
• Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) +7.7 over Joe O’Dea
• Florida: Marco Rubio (R) + 5.7 over Val Demings
• New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) +5.4 over Don Bolduc
• North Carolina: Ted Budd (R) +2.8 over Cheri Beasley

Toss-Ups

• Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D) + 2.4 over Herschel Walker
• Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R) +2.8 over Mandela Barnes
• Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) + 1.2 over Catherine Cortez Masto
• Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D) + 2.4 over Mehmet Oz

I believe there will not be a changing of the senate majority, I am seeing another 50/50 split with the tie-breaking vote going to the Democratic Vice President. I believe there will be a split in the Pennsylvania and Georgia races and Republicans will take both Wisconsin and Nevada. However, for democrats, the longer they get away from the summer’s momentum caused by the Roe v.Wade decision, the more trouble it spells for them. This final homestretch favors republicans, so if democrats can hold onto these narrow leads, they’ll be limping through the finish line.

The House

Democrats, look away. It requires 218 seats to control the house, currently, the democrats are in the majority with 220 seats to the republican 212. Historically, midterms are a referendum against the party in power and the incumbent President. Below is a graph showing the seats lost and gained at midterm elections during each presidency dating back to Carter in ‘78. With the exception of George W. during a time of “War” (wink wink), where approval ratings are high and the 1998 midterms that were an indictment on Republican leadership, every sitting president lost seats in the house. The 2022 midterms will be no exception, the only question is, by how much?

According to FiveThirtyEight, an apolitical polling interpreter, republicans have an 81% chance to take control of the house. The most likely scenario involves republicans gaining control of between 225-232 seats, passing that 218 majority threshold. What this means is that we’ll have a stalemate, and political power will be checked and balanced. Very little will be passed outside of executive action, a trend that has gotten absurdly and unconstitutionally abused by the last 3 administrations. In the scenario that the republicans take both the house and senate, still, very little will be passed as bills proposed in congress (outside of increased military spending) will be dead on arrival once it reaches the desk of the democratic president.

Demographics

What I am most intrigued by is the shake-out of the demographic voting trends. I loathe the idea of looking at race and sex as metrics to evaluate people. People are not defined by their characteristics and the groups that share those characteristics, instead, people should be evaluated on an individual basis. With that being said, voting trends offer insight into the social-cultural trends within each community.

Within the last couple of election cycles, there has been increased republican turnout amongst Hispanics. Despite the attempt to label republicans as bigots for wanting to secure the border, Hispanics have swung heavily in the direction of republicans. There were several mayoral elections in Texas over the past couple of years where a republican Hispanic candidate won in traditionally heavy blue cities. The Cuban vote may be amongst the most passionate voting block in the country, many of them and their families fled socialism and fear the democrats want to bring “Equity” to this country. The effect of the Roe decision does not resonate with Hispanic Americans as Hispanics have a higher concentration of catholic faith than say White Americans. Considering there was a ten-point swing between 2016 and 2020, it’s going to be interesting to see how the voting concentration shakes out as it will be a major indicator heading into the 2024 presidential election. 

The Black-American voting block is always the heaviest concentration of democratic votes within a given population, however, this trend is worth monitoring at midterms. With all of the attention on race relations before the 2020 election and the labeling of the former president as a bigot, one would expect the Black-American vote to have been a higher concentration of democratic votes than in 2016. This, however, was not the case as Former President Trump received an increase in the Black-American vote between 2020 and 2016. The vote will likely still be above 90% however I am interested to see whether there is a greater or lesser share at midterms, this will be a pretty good indication of how the community feels about the job democrats have done for them.

The White male vote is somewhat split down socioeconomic lines. The greatest share of republican votes comes from white males however there is a growing disconnect between urban and suburban votes and rural votes. It is no secret that the rural vote always sides with republicans, these are people that traditionally want as little government intervention as possible. What has been different in recent years however is the changing of the blue-collar vote. The democratic party was always the “Working, union-man” party however voters no longer feel this to be the case, they now see the democratic party as out of touch and the party of the affluent and the academics. Due to this, the blue-collar vote is lost for democrats, it now belongs to the republicans. Some might characterize this as evidence that the democratic party has become an elitist institution and some might characterize this as a result of an under-educated demographic not realizing they’re voting against their own interests. The suburban white-male vote is an interesting one because it changes depending on the candidate put forth. The suburban vote is what decided the 2020 election, a greater share of white-suburban-males who are traditionally republican-leaning moderates rejected Donald Trump and instead swung to Biden in 2020. However, in elections such as the Virginia gubernatorial election, you see a return to the republican party indicating that it may not be a republican-issue but instead a Trump issue with the voting base. It’s going to be interesting to see whether this voting block returns to republicans in an election cycle that does not involve the former president or if they have instead swung in the direction of the democratic party.

The White-female vote will be the most enthusiastic vote of this election cycle. Undoubtedly the overturning of Roe has galvanized a voting block that has been said will decide the 2024 Presidential election. Although democrats lost 4 points amongst this demographic between 2016 and 2020, it is not a surprise considering the candidate in 2016 was a woman. While I don’t expect to see much of a fluctuation for middle-aged women, I expect the strongest turnout from the younger generations of women ever recorded in midterm elections and a higher concentration voting democrat than previously. Moving forward this demographic will grow increasingly democrat-leaning as women are far outpacing men in college attendance. Some might interpret this as women are becoming more educated and independent than decades past while others may say women enter female-dominated majors such as education, human resources, and liberal arts and are being presented far-left ideology as objective fact. Regardless, there will be a growing disparity between white men and women voting patterns moving forward, enthusiasm generated by Roe further exacerbates this trend. 

Conclusion

My prediction for the approaching mid-terms is that whoever has control of congress will disappoint their constituents and we’ll all lose. A federal government stalemate is likely the best possible scenario when you consider the present state of the economy. We just passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that does not accomplish its namesake but instead exacerbates the existing problem of government spending and an increased deficit. If democrats retained the congressional majority they will continue passing more and more social spending programs that only continue the devaluation of the dollar and increase of taxes. There is no worse policy decision in times of economic downturn than to increase taxes, especially when you consider that more tax revenue is generated under a lower tax policy than an increased tax policy because there is more wealth created to tax. Lower taxes equate to increased revenue, increased revenue equates to higher employment and more widespread prosperity. Inflation is also a tax, one that is far worse and worsens when we push through spending bills. When you look at nearly every single period of economic turmoil and look beyond the propaganda, it is a result of government intervention in the economy and gets falsely attributed to “Capitalism.” Republicans, on the other hand, act as if they’re deficit hawks when they’re not in power, when they are in power, they too increase spending and bureaucratic bloat. The supposed “Party of Freedom” instituted The Patriot Act, the most blatant invasion of individual rights in my lifetime. Republicans run as conservatives and govern socialists.

Every election cycle we’re presented with the false illusion of choice. When there is a monopoly on political power and both sides represent the same special interests, there is no free-choice, only an oligarchy.