State of the Leos

The conversation and the expectations surrounding the Detroit football Lions is much different than what we’ve been accustomed to throughout the last several (50+) years. Even in comparison to the Jim Caldwell era, making the playoffs in both 2014 and 2016, the Lions organization is in a different place than that time period. Those two playoff teams, led by Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford, felt superficial and top-heavy. The team lacked a quality offensive line and a running game, and instead relied on the freakish playmaking ability of Megatron and Stafford’s ability to say “F*ck it, Calvin’s down there somewhere.” 

However, this iteration of the Leos has been constructed much differently by GM Brad Holmes than that of former GMs Martin Mayhew and Bob Quinn. Holmes strategically constructed the roster from the bottom up and inside out by laying a foundation built upon elite offensive line play. Undoubtedly the issue plaguing the team following the 2022 season was the defensive unit that the front office has made a concerted effort to improve. We’re going to discuss and examine some of the off-season moves made through free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft and what we can expect moving forward.

Key Statistics

Brad Holmes is now entering his third season as the franchise’s general manager. In a remarkably short period of time, he has transformed the team from basement-dwelling bums to a legitimate NFC contender. Holmes inherited a dumpster fire from former GM Bob Quinn and former coach Matt Patricia who initially appeared to have a method to their madness but instead, their “Smartest man in the room” approach turned to ash. Since taking over the franchise, Holmes has built upon the offense and steadily improved the defense. However, the mission heading into free agency and the 2023 draft was clear, defensive improvement is paramount. These are some of the notable stats from both sides of the ball following the 2022 season and heading into the 2023 off-season.

Notable Defensive Statistics- 2022

• Points Given Up Per Game: 25.12 (3rd Worst in NFL)
• Opposing Rush Yards Per Game: 146.5 (4th Worst in NFL)
• Opposing Passing Yards Per Game: 245.8 (3rd Worst in NFL)

Notable Offensive Statistics- 2022

• Yards Per Game: 380.0 (4th in NFL)
• Points Per Game: 26.6 (5th in NFL)
• Rush Yards Per Game: 128.2 (11th in NFL)
• Sacks Given Up Per Game: 1.4 (2nd in NFL)

Free Agency

When evaluating the metrics listed above, it is clear that the team has a tale of two cities’ situation when it comes to the two sides of the ball. After bolstering the outside pash rushing positions over the course of the last couple of seasons (Hutchinson, James Houston, Okwara brothers, Paschal, Charles Harris, John Cominsky) combined with a talented safety group (Kerby Joseph and Tracy Walker), the mission was clear, they need help desperately at the corner and linebacker positions.  

The defensive backfield became much improved through off-season free agency by bringing in three talented, and perhaps undervalued players. The most notable addition comes from the Nickleback position and the acquisition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson from the Philadelphia Eagles. The defensive back was tied for the lead in interceptions last season with six and is a much-needed improvement from draft-bust Jeffrey Okudah. On the outside, we signed former Steelers corner Cameron Sutton to a 3-year/33 million deal who graded out at a solid 71.6 grade according to Pro Football Focus. Additionally, opposite Sutton, we brought in former 49ers corner Emmanuel Moseley on a 1-year/6 million-dollar deal. Moseley was a standout for the 49ers’ defense last season and had the unfortunate luck of tearing his ACL right before he was set to get a new multi-year contract which is how we were able to scoop him up on a one-year deal at a discounted price.

The offensive side of the ball saw only a couple of free-agent acquisitions. After losing the leading touchdown-getter in the NFL last season (Jamaal Walliams), the team needed to bring in an additional running back so they went ahead and did so. David Montgomery is a solid young running back who can rush effectively as well as catch passes out of the backfield. According to PFF, Montgomery ranked in the 76th percentile among all qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt and in the 85th percentile in missed tackles forced per reception across his first three NFL seasons. His role will most likely be primarily in early down and short-yardage situations however he is an effective enough pass-catcher to be able to hold opposing defenses honest. The offensive line received added depth through the acquisition of former Lion and Michigan Wolverine, Graham Glasgow.

Heading into the 2023 NFL draft the positions of need were relatively clear, cornerback, linebacker, interior defensive line, tight end, and receiver.

2023 Draft Class

The reaction from the national sports media regarding the Lions draft varied greatly. The general opinion being that it was an unorthodox strategy with the front office reaching for players early and then finding value in the subsequent rounds. NFL.com gave a grade of C+, Pro Football Focus gave a B+, and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports an A. Charles McDonald of Yahoo Sports gave the organization an F, saying, “Detroit Lions’ picks were mostly baffling.” 

It is true that the strategy felt unorthodox, but at the same time, who cares? It does feel like taking a running back at 12 and an inside linebacker at 18 felt early but if they turn out to be studs, where they were selected becomes irrelevant. I find the idea that if a draft strategy strays from what the “Draft experts” picked for teams to be frivolous, no one knows the team nor its needs better than those that suffer the consequences for its ineptitude.

Round 1:

• Pick 12: Jahmyr Gibbs- RB Alabama
• Pick 18: Jack Campbell- ILB Iowa

With the exception of running back prospects that are considered to be “Generational” such as Saquon Barkley and now Bijan Robinson, taking a running back in the first round is seen as poor value. With the exception of a few rosters, every team operates the position from a committee approach, including the Lions who just allocated $18M to the position. 

With that being said, it is quite possible that the New Orleans-transplanted coaching staff found their version of Alvin Kamara in Gibbs. In the clips of his time at Alabama that I’ve watched, there are attributes that jump off the screen. While his 40-time at the combine was exceptional at a 4.36, it is instead his burst and ability to break the angles of the defenders that looked more impressive than his flat-line speed. Alabama’s running scheme relies largely on zone-blocking schemes which create natural cut-back lanes. A running back cannot simply be fast to run effectively in the scheme but instead must have the ability to run patiently, allowing lanes to open up while having the vision to find and hit seems. The Lions run a similar blocking scheme and the front office undoubtedly noticed the rare combination of speed, vision, balance, and patience that Gibbs exhibits within it. It is perhaps the running back’s pass-catching ability that is the most impressive aspect of his game. As an elite pass-catching running back prospect, coupled with the absence of Jamison Williams to begin the season, I suspect he’ll be working from in and out of the slot position often. Gibbs ought to be able to eat up yards after completions and be explosive in the open field.

Jack Campbell was a unanimous all-american and the winner of the Butkus Award for the nation’s top linebacker. Taking an inside backer in the middle of the first round is also looked at as a reach, too early for the position group unless the player is special. However, it was a position of need for the defensive unit who struggled tremendously in pass coverage from the position group while giving up 146.5 yards per game on the ground. 

One of the areas of concern tied to Campbell is related to his size at 6’5 250 in an era of the game where the preferred size for his position is 6’2 237. The 40-time posted at the combine was a 4.65, not a great time and one that reinforces the concerns of his size. With that being said, I don’t know how much stock Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell put into the 40-time compared to the rest of his athletic profile. 

The athletic profile for Campbell came out to be the best for his position group within the draft class. His 3-tone drill at 6.74 was the best time within the position group in the last 5 years at the combine. Campbell ranked first in both the 20-yard shuttle and high jump while finishing 2nd in the broad jump. All-in-all, the rest of the metrics outside of the 40-time is probably a better overall representation of his on-field quickness and athleticism. The first-round pick will likely be an immediate starter alongside Alex Anzalone.

Round 2

• Pick 34: Sam LaPorta- TE Iowa
• Pick 45: Brian Branch- S Alabama

After last season’s departure of tight-end T.J. Hockenson, a void was left at the position. Although fill-ins Brock Wright and James Mitchell performed well in their roles, the team needed to add a prospect with a higher pass-catching profile. It appears they may have done just that by taking the all-time tight-end completion leader at the school dubbed “Tight End U.” LaPorta has excellent speed posting a 4.52 40 time while being a tremendous yards after catch target. According to PFF, the top two pass catchers with the most forced missed tackles in Power 5 conferences across all positions were Sam LaPorta at one and Jahmyr Gibbs at two. Although tight-end seems to be a position that takes a few years to develop, LaPorta should be able to be an immediate upgrade in the passing game and a key target over the middle of the field. 

One could make a reasonable case that the pick with the most value in the entire draft was the Lions’ taking of Brian Branch at pick 45. The former Alabama all-american was the number one ranked safety prospect heading into the draft and is seen to have one of the higher floors of any position in the draft. Branch is a Swiss army knife, being able to play multiple positions in the secondary however he will play the nickel back spot in the Lions’ defensive scheme. Branch is a smart, instinctual player who plays bigger and faster than his measurables. A benefit for the defense is found in his exceptional tackling. PFF had the all-american safety grade out with a 90.7 run defense grade (2nd in FBS) and in his entire career at Alabama only missed four tackles. Although his playing time will be mostly in relief this upcoming season due to the bringing in of C.J. Gardner-Johnson on a one-year deal, look for him to be used in multiple ways including as a blitzer off the edge.

Round 3

• Pick 68: Hendon Hooker- QB Tennessee
• Pick 96: Brodric Martin- DT Western Kentucky

Arguably the most intriguing pick of Holmes’ 2023 class was found in the taking of Hendon Hooker with the 68th pick. The low-risk-high-reward selection allows the team to address the need for a backup quarterback while also opening the door for potentially having found the successor to Jared Goff. The SEC Offensive Player of the Year suffered a torn ACL during the season, an injury that may have derailed him from winning the Heisman Trophy. With good size at 6’4, the SEC standout ranked 7th in completion percentage (69.6) and 2nd in passing efficiency in all of FBS. As a two-year starter at Tennessee, the quarterback had a 69% completion rate, 58 touchdowns, 1,046 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, and only five interceptions. 

The downsides related to Hooker are his age at 25 and the offensive system in which he played. Tennessee’s offensive scheme, orchestrated by head coach Josh Huepel, is a one-read system, one that is far less complex than the system Hooker will be running at the next level. With that being said, the quarterback is entering a franchise with one of the best offensive lines and running games in the league which will force opposing defenses to keep people in the box and open up a highly effective play-action passing game. With Jared Goff’s contract expiring soon, the decision to re-sign the quarterback may be correlated to the success or lack of it that the 68th selection showcases. 

In one of the more curious moves in this year’s draft, the Lions traded three mid-round picks to be able to move up to 96 and select defensive tackle, Brodric Martin. At 6’5 330 pounds the defensive staff is hoping they found an interior defensive lineman that can force a double team from opposing offensive linemen which will allow the linebacking corp to be freed up to fill lanes while limiting the capability to double team outside edge rushers.

Remaining Draft Selections

In the fifth round, we took FCS All-American tackle Colby Sorsdal who has size at 6’6 300 pounds and will likely be moved to one of the interior line positions. At pick 219 the front office selected Antoine Green, a 6’2 receiver out of North Carolina. With Williams missing the first six games due to a suspension, reserve Quintez Cephus getting dismissed, and the age of Marvin Jones, the team is hoping Green will be able to make the roster and offer much-needed depth at the position.

Off-Season Take-a-Ways

All-in-all I would venture to say that Brad Holmes and the Lions front office had an excellent off-season where they were able to address several team needs. Through free agency, the front office addressed issues within the secondary, brought in a talented young running back, and added depth to both interior lines. Although I’d venture to say the Lions were planning on taking the corner out of Illinois Devin Witherspoon with the 6th selection, they were able to address multiple areas of need. I project a minimum of 3-to-4 starters being added through their selections while Nickelback Brian Branch will be able to learn under Garnder-Johnson so that he’ll be able to step in and fill the role full-time next season. While the draft was indeed unorthodox, it was also strategic. Whether the strategy works out, only time will tell. However, I believe the 2023 off-season was a continuation of Brad Holmes’ track record of success and the team was put in the best position possible to win the NFC North division and enter the playoff picture once again. 

Go Leos.